Ukrayna İqtisadiyyat Nazirliyi 2026-cı il üçün ÜDM proqnozunu yenidən aşağı endirir

Bu niyə vacibdir

Proqnozun aşağı endirilməsi müharibə ilə bağlı logistika pozulmasının, limanların bloklanmasının və biznes şəraitinin zəiflənməsinin iqtisadiyyatın bütün sahələrində təsirini показати. Р originally expected 2.4% growth used to prepare the approved 2026 budget is already substantially lower. At the same time, shelling damage and a shortfall in state revenue increase pressure on Ukraine’s economy and public finances.

Nə baş verdi

During the Kyiv International Economic Forum, Economy and Environment Minister Oleqsandr Kravçenko said the ministry was preparing another downward revision to its 2026 GDP growth forecast. The final figure had not been determined, but a preliminary assessment put it 1–1.5 percentage points below the June forecast of 1.6%. Kravçenko attributed the deterioration to blocked Ukrainian seaports, intensified Russian shelling and the partial postponement of capital budget spending until the end of the year.

The ministry estimates that shelling-related losses have reached about $8 billion and could reach $10 billion by the end of 2026. Most of the losses in the first half of the year were in energy, but they are expected to affect all economic sectors in the second half. The broader data also point to weak growth: State Statistics revised second-quarter GDP growth down to 0.4%, while first-quarter real GDP contracted by 0.6% year over year.

Ukrayna mənbələri bu barədə necə yazır

Ukrainian reporting emphasizes the consequences of the downgrade for public finances and the widening scope of damage. The Ministry of Economy and government officials are the principal sources of the assessment. A major focus is the failure to receive 50 billion hryvnias in planned budget revenue over nine months, including a 32-billion-hryvnia shortfall in August and September.

Beynəlxalq mənbələr bu barədə necə yazır

International institutional forecasts provide context for the worsening outlook. In late July, the National Bank raised its 2026 forecast to 1.8%, while the IMF lowered its range to 1.0–1.6% in June and July. On 17 September, the National Bank reduced its forecast to 1.1–1.2%, and on 2 October the EBRD warned of the risk of a further GDP decline. The available coverage consists of Ukrainian sources and does not present a separate international perspective on the ministry’s announcement.

Mənbələr nədə fərqlənir

The June Ministry of Economy forecast of 1.6% differs from other forecasts and assessments, which range from about 0.5% to 1.8%. The ministry’s final revised forecast remains undetermined.

Kontekst

The Ministry of Economy first reduced its 2026 growth forecast from 2.4% to 1.6% in June, the rate on which the approved state budget had been based. The ministry was also considering a scenario of approximately 0.5% real GDP growth. State Statistics subsequently revised second-quarter growth down from 0.6% to 0.4%. The National Bank linked its lower September forecast to additional damage to industry and trade from Russian shelling and weaker business expectations.